Technical Feasibility and Risk Assessment for a National Renewable Energy Investment Portfolio
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Client: Confidential Middle Eastern Sovereign Wealth Fund
Duration: 2022–2023

Challenge:

The client—a sovereign wealth fund tasked with achieving national energy transition targets—was considering a multi-billion-dollar investment in a diversified renewable energy portfolio spanning wind, solar, and battery energy storage assets across MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa. These assets, although high-potential, carried significant grid integration, reliability, and policy alignment risks.

Their key concerns included:

  • Whether national and regional transmission infrastructure could handle new renewable capacity.
  • Risks related to grid code enforcement in weaker regulatory environments.
  • Energy evacuation, curtailment potential, and exposure to frequency/voltage instability.
  • Long-term technical sustainability of BESS assets under harsh weather conditions and load profiles.
  • Compatibility with national energy security frameworks, including resilience against blackouts or political instability.

PowerTek’s Solution:

PowerTek was retained as the sovereign-level technical advisor, providing long-horizon, risk-adjusted due diligence that extended well beyond commercial vendor claims. Our work included:

  • Transmission and Grid Capacity Assessments
    Assessed system stability, congestion risk, and intertie capabilities for each region using N-1/N-2 scenarios.
  • Multi-Region Grid Code Compliance Mapping
    Benchmarked each country’s regulatory framework, identifying gaps and exposure to enforcement uncertainty.
  • Renewable Resource Performance Stress Testing
    Simulated power output using weather volatility scenarios (e.g., sandstorms, monsoon seasons, grid disturbances).
  • Resilience and ESG Review
    Reviewed long-term asset durability and alignment with UN SDGs, including decarbonization pathways, system resilience, and climate vulnerability.
  • Contingency & Islanding Studies
    Evaluated each asset’s role in national energy security, with modeling for islanded operation, black start capability, and BESS performance during outages.

Results:

  • Provided a multi-layer risk scoring matrix across all projects, flagging geographies and assets with unsustainable technical profiles.
  • Informed the client’s go/no-go decision-making across 5+ regions and 3GW+ of potential investment.
  • Enabled the SWF to negotiate stronger performance guarantees and step-in rights with local developers.

Designed a framework for ongoing monitoring and sovereign-level KPI tracking across energy reliability, ESG impact, and grid performance.

Key Services Provided

Sovereign-Level Technical Due Diligence for National Energy Investments
Transmission System Impact Analysis and Long-Term Resilience Forecasting
Multi-Country Grid Code & Regulatory Risk Mapping
ESG Impact Analysis and Resilient Infrastructure Assessment
System Islanding, Black Start, and Contingency Planning
Renewable + Storage Sustainability Modeling under Harsh Climatic Conditions
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